Historical recession in revenue
Turkey, which was 55th in 1980, 51st in 1990, and 66th in 2000, falls to 81st in 2022 in terms of national income per capita as an indicator of the average welfare level of its citizens.
It was determined that, beyond the total economic size of the countries, in terms of their per capita income, which is the main indicator of the average welfare level of their citizens, Turkey fell to the historical bottom with 81st place as of 2022.
The latest of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report, which includes macroeconomic realizations recorded in 196 countries since 1980 and projections until 2027, has been published recently. The data set dated October 2022 revealed that Turkey, which lost blood in the “large economy” ranking made according to gross domestic product (total national income), fell dramatically in the ranking according to per capita income.
In 1980, when there was a “need for 70 cents”, Turkey was the 21st country in the world with a gross domestic product (total national income) of 96.6 billion dollars, and the 55th country with a per capita income of 2,134 dollars, according to IMF data. In 1990, Turkey rose to the 20th place among the countries with its national income of 207.5 billion dollars and to the 51st place with its per capita income of 3,738 dollars. In the following decade, due to the relatively low growth rate and relatively high population growth rate in comparison with the world, Turkey moved down 10 places in the per capita income ranking, moving to countries that were better in this respect. In 2000, Turkey ranked 21st among countries with a total national income of 274.1 billion dollars, while it fell to the 66th place in per capita income with 4,238 dollars.
Turkey, whose national income fell to 202.2 billion dollars in 2001, when the severe economic crisis was experienced, fell to the 23rd place in the ranking of the largest economy. In the same year, per capita income fell to 3.083 dollars and Turkey was 78th in the ranking. With the recovery that started with the new economic program implemented after the 2001 crisis, Turkey rose to 21st place in total national income with 240.2 billion dollars in 2002 and to 74th place in per capita income with 3,617 dollars.
Turkey, which rose in the national income ranking as the new government came to power at the end of 2002 continued the economic program that was put into practice before, reached a national income volume of 409.1 billion dollars in 2004 and became the 17th in the ranking by rising 4 steps at once. Thus, Turkey re-entered the league of the “top 20 economies” years later. It also rose to 63rd place in per capita income.
In the period of 2004-2010 (7 years), when Turkey increased its national income from $409.1 billion to $776.6 billion, Turkey continued on its way as the 17th largest economy. In this period, the per capita income increased from 6,016 dollars to 10,534 dollars. Turkey ranked 65th in per capita income that year.
Within the scope of the “2023 targets” announced in 2011, it was envisaged that the total national income would be 2 trillion dollars, the national income per capita would be 25 thousand dollars, and that Turkey would be among the top 10 economies.
Despite increasing its national income to 838.5 billion dollars in 2011, Turkey, which was 18th in the ranking, became the 17th largest economy in 2012 with 880.1 billion dollars. In per capita income, it ranked 65th with 11,221 dollars in 2011 and 68th in 2012 with 11,638 dollars.
Turkey increased its national income to 957.5 billion dollars in 2013, rising to the 16th rank and maintained this rank in 2014 and 2015 as well. Turkey, which was 17th in terms of national income in 2016 and 2017, fell to 19th with its national income, which decreased to 779.7 billion dollars in 2018. While maintaining the same rank in the following year, Turkey fell to the 20th rank, in other words, the lower limit of the top 20 economy leagues, with its national income declining to 720 billion dollars in 2020.
Turkey, which is in the same place in 2021, will continue to be in the last place of the league as the 20th largest economy with 853.5 billion dollars in 2022 and 941.6 billion dollars in 2023 according to IMF projections.
Historic bottom in KBG
There has been a dramatic decrease in Turkey’s per capita income, which shows the average welfare level of the people of the country, in recent years. After reaching the highest level in its history at $12,489 in 2013, it declined steadily over the following seven years, reaching $8,612 in 2020. Turkey, which fell from 65th to 77th in the intercountry period in the 2013-2020 period, ranked 77th with a per capita income of $9,654 in 2021, while the average per capita income of this year is $9,961. is expected to decrease.
This order of Turkey represents the lowest point of the period since 1980, the beginning of the IMF statistic in question.
The fact that the decrease in per capita income continued for 7 consecutive years, as it did not even during the 1980 coup and 2001 crisis, and Turkey’s position as the 81st country in the world according to this macro indicator, is an important warning for the general economy and therefore the social structure. In terms of per capita income, even with the 78th place it fell in 2001, the year of the severe economic crisis, Turkey was in a relatively better rank than 2022.
According to IMF projections, Turkey will only be able to reach the level it fell in the 2001 economic crisis by rising to 78th place in 2023.
super league of income
According to the calculations of the IMF, Luxembourg will continue to rank first with 127,673 dollars in the 2022 per capita national income ranking, where Turkey will be the 81st with $9,961. It is expected that this country will be followed by Ireland with $102,217, Norway with $92,646, Switzerland with $92,435 and Qatar with $82,887. Singapore, USA, Iceland, Australia and Denmark come next in the ranking of the top ten countries that can be called the “super league” in per capita income, which is an indicator of the average level of welfare. If purchasing power parity is not taken into account, the average income of each Luxembourgian is about 13 Turks, based on the nominal amount of national income per capita. In other words, the total gross domestic product created by 13 Turks is equivalent to that created by only one Luxembourg citizen.
Economists expect 3.9 percent increase in GDP
AA Finance’s expectation survey for the 3rd quarter GDP data of 2022, which will be announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) on Wednesday, November 30, resulted in the participation of 15 economists. According to the survey results, economists expect the Turkish economy to grow by 3.9 percent in the third quarter of this year. Economists’ growth expectations for the third quarter were between 3 percent and 4.8 percent. The average of economists’ growth expectations for the whole of 2022 was 5.2 percent. Economists’ growth expectations for 2022 were 4.5 percent at the lowest and 5.7 percent at the highest.
Meaning of drop in ranking
The ranking made on the basis of country data of the IMF gives the relative change in the comparison of countries as well as the change in the amount of national income per capita, which is the indicator of the average welfare level, according to the periods. In the periodical comparison, a country’s step-down shows that even if the per capita national income amount increases nominally in the relevant period, the countries that pass that country are more than the ones that it passes through. The fact that the country moves up in the rankings indicates the opposite.
What is GDP per capita?
Gross domestic product (GDP)/national income per capita is found by dividing the relevant year’s GDP by the relevant mid-year population. Therefore, it shows the average amount of national income created per capita in the country in a year, in other words, the average amount per capita of the total national income created by the country in this period. The increase or decrease of the amount found in this way reveals the enrichment and impoverishment situation of the individuals of the country in general.